On the eve of a closely watched Election Day, former President Donald Trump threw his political weight behind New Jersey Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli, declaring during a telephone rally that “the entire country is watching” the state’s election. But in a similar call supporting Republican candidates in Virginia, Trump notably refrained from mentioning GOP gubernatorial hopeful Winsome Earle-Sears by name a conspicuous omission as she continues to trail in the polls.
The contrasting approaches highlight how Trump is selectively engaging in the 2025 off-year races, potentially reflecting his assessment of each candidate’s electoral prospects.
“The polls are looking really good, they’re just about even,” Donald Trump told New Jersey voters during Monday’s telephone rally for Ciattarelli. “We’re going to take New Jersey back.” Ciattarelli, a former state legislator, currently trails Democratic incumbent Phil Murphy by roughly three percentage points, according to the latest Real Clear Politics polling average.
In Virginia, however, the tone was markedly different. During his Monday night call to boost Republican turnout, Donald Trump avoided mentioning Earle-Sears, who faces Democratic Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger in a race where she is down by about 10 points in the polls. Trump instead focused his remarks on Virginia’s attorney general race, praising GOP candidate Jason Miyares by name while urging voters to support “Republicans up and down the ballot.”
“I haven’t been too much involved in Virginia,” Donald Trump admitted last month when asked by reporters aboard Air Force One about the state’s elections. He did describe Earle-Sears as “excellent,” but his lack of formal endorsement and limited engagement suggest a cautious approach in a state that has trended Democratic in recent cycles.
Miyares’ contest against Democrat Jay Jones has drawn increasing attention from national Republicans, particularly after Jones became entangled in a texting scandal that has dominated headlines in the state’s final campaign stretch. GOP strategists see the attorney general race as potentially winnable, even if the governor’s mansion remains a tougher climb.
The 2025 off-year elections spanning New Jersey, Virginia, California, and New York City are widely viewed as early barometers of public sentiment toward both Trump and the Democratic Party as the nation inches closer to the 2026 midterms.
Donald Trump’s presence looms large over these contests. His name and record have become fixtures in campaign ads and debates across the country, with Democrats warning of a “return to Trumpism” and Republicans embracing his endorsement where it benefits them.
Political analysts say Donald Trump’s selective involvement underscores a pragmatic calculation: investing his political capital where Republicans have a realistic chance to win, while avoiding association with potential losses.
“Donald Trump is clearly testing the waters,” said Dr. Lauren Pritchard, a political science professor at Georgetown University. “He’s inserting himself into races that could demonstrate his continued influence but steering clear of those that might signal weakness if Republicans underperform.”
As voters in both New Jersey and Virginia head to the polls, Trump’s split strategy could offer an early preview of how he intends to navigate future endorsements balancing loyalty, optics, and his own political momentum heading into 2026.
