With Election Day less than 24 hours away, President Donald Trump’s approval rating remains close to its lowest level on record, while Democrats continue to hold an advantage over Republicans in the race for control of Congress, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll released Monday, November 2.
The latest survey found that Donald Trump’s approval rating stood at 32%, unchanged from the previous week. The figure is just one percentage point above the record-low rating of 31% that he reached in October, indicating that his overall approval has remained at a similar level in the final days before the November 3 midterm elections.
Republicans also continued to trail Democrats in the generic congressional ballot, although the gap between the two parties narrowed slightly. Democrats held an eight-percentage-point advantage in the latest survey, compared with an 11-point lead recorded the previous week. The results indicate that Democrats maintained their advantage among surveyed voters as both parties entered the final stretch of the campaign.
Reuters/Ipsos conducted the poll between October 29 and November 2, surveying 1,765 adults across the United States. The survey has a margin of error of approximately two percentage points. As with other opinion polls, the findings represent the views of respondents at the time of the survey and do not necessarily indicate how the final election results will unfold.
Trump Emerges As A Factor In Voters’ Decisions
The survey also examined the extent to which Trump could influence voters’ decisions on Election Day. Among likely voters, 50% said their vote would be cast against the president, while just 13% said they planned to vote in support of him. Another 33% said Trump would not be a factor in determining their choice.
The findings suggest that Trump’s presence in the political debate remains relevant to how many voters view the congressional elections. Although the midterms are primarily contests between individual candidates for House and Senate seats, the president’s standing and political influence can also shape the broader campaign environment.
Democrats Maintain An Advantage In Other Polls
Other surveys released in the closing days of the midterm campaign have also shown Democrats leading Republicans on the generic congressional ballot. An AtlasIntel poll published over the weekend placed the Democratic Party 14 percentage points ahead of Republicans, indicating a wider gap than the one recorded in the latest Reuters/Ipsos survey.
Election forecasting models have also outlined possible scenarios for control of Congress following the November 3 elections. According to VoteHub, Democrats have been assigned an 89% probability of winning the House of Representatives, with the model projecting that the party could secure 234 seats. The same forecast gives Democrats a 68% probability of gaining control of the Senate, with 52 seats projected.
These figures represent statistical probabilities generated by an election forecasting model rather than confirmed election results. The balance of power in Congress will ultimately depend on the outcomes of individual House and Senate contests across the country. Differences in polling methods, voter turnout and developments in individual races can also affect the final results.
National Polling Averages Show Trump’s Approval Below 40%
Trump’s Reuters/Ipsos approval rating also comes as several national polling averages continue to show more Americans disapproving of his performance than approving of it. Figures published on Monday, November 2, by different polling aggregators placed his approval rating between 37% and 39.3%.
According to RealClearPolitics, Trump’s average approval rating stood at 39.3%, while his disapproval rating was 58.8%. The New York Times polling average placed his approval at 37%, compared with 60% disapproval. Meanwhile, Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin average showed Trump with 38.4% approval and 58.8% disapproval.
Although the individual averages differ slightly, all three showed Trump’s disapproval rating considerably higher than his approval rating. The figures also highlight the difference between individual poll results and aggregated polling averages, which combine findings from multiple surveys using their respective methodologies.
With voters preparing to cast their ballots on November 3, Trump’s approval rating, the generic congressional ballot and the competing forecasts have become important measures of the political environment surrounding the midterm elections. However, the polling figures remain snapshots of voter sentiment rather than definitive indicators of the outcome, with the final balance of power in Congress to be determined by votes counted across individual districts and states.
